Coronavirus and Avian Flu Tidbits #301, June 30, 2024

Wastewater levels -

Wastewaterscan.org - Levels continue to rise nationally for 8th week--sad we have to use wastewater since US hospitals do not report Covid hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data. (Thanks CDC!)

six states—Alaska, Hawaii, New Mexico, Missouri, Florida, and Connecticut—are reporting very high activity.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/cdc-data-show-uptick-covid-19-cases-low-flu-activity

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Mike Hoerger:  You've got about 1 good month left for higher risk medical and dental visits. Expect 500,000 to 600,000 infections/day the next month -- in a summer "lull." This is relatively low at 25% of last winter's peak, while extremely high in the absolute sense. Get dental/medical care before it is worse.”

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The Walgreens Covid positivity rate is the highest since September 15, 2023. It has increased by 4.1% to 34.1% nationwide since last week.

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COVID cases on the rise in 39 states

New variants KP.3 and LB.1 rising

tracking two new variants growing in proportion nationwide. KP.3 has reached roughly a third of cases nationwide, up from 25% two weeks ago, and LB.1 makes up 17.5% of cases, as of the CDC's "Nowcast" projections published Friday. Both are displacing a close relative, a so-called "FLiRT" variant called KP.2. All three of these variants share a common ancestor in the JN.1 strain.

CDC is switching rec from new vaccine against JN.1 to KP.3.

"There is currently no evidence that KP.3 or LB.1 cause more severe disease," CDC spokesperson David Daigle told CBS News.

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Rapid increases in Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland

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Likelihood of Neuropsych symptoms in Long Covid are reduced by vax

Increased vaccination against COVID-19 and heterologous vaccination were associated with reduced long-term risk of adverse neuropsychiatric outcomes of of Guillain-Barré syndrome, cognitive deficit, insomnia, anxiety disorder, encephalitis, ischemic stroke and mood disorder.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-01895-8

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One in Five Doctors With Long COVID Can No Longer Work

What struck me (@Dave_it_up) about the article is we already have a shortage of doctors. Doctors are some of the most trained professionals, and are critical in society. The average time to fully train a doctor is approximately 11 to 16 years. This includes: - 4 years of undergraduate education - 4 years of medical school - 3 to 8 years of residency, depending on the specialty Some specialties require additional fellowship training, extending the total time further. If doctors keep getting long Covid, look at how many years of lost knowledge From article “At a time of national crisis, when healthcare workers were asked to step up, we did. When the nation needed us, we stepped up. We put our lives on the line. We put our families' lives on the line. And now that we are injured after knowingly being unprotected and deliberately and repeatedly exposed to a level-three biohazard, we now find ourselves in this position." https://medscape.com/viewarticle/996030

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Masking/ mask bans:

So many issues with the mask ban bill introduced by Democrats in NY, A10057A. One of many of them is that it only provides a limited health exception "during a declared public health emergency"! ignoring medical recommendation to mask up in crowded settings to avoid COVID/Flu or spreading sickness especially during a surge! Remember, US ended the public health emergency for COVID-19 in 2023!

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The ppl trying to ban masks openly state that vulnerable ppl probably shouldn’t be in “large groups” Ok so in other words : airports, airplanes, public transit, conferences, workplaces, grocery stores, hospitals, concerts…. Disabled ppl aren’t able to exist in public

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Right wing think tanks like the Manhattan Institute are creating model legislation for mask bans, which Democrats are trying to make law. https://manhattan.institute/article/model-legislation-to-modernize-anti-kkk-masking-laws-for-intimidating-protesters

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NY Governor Hochul is not only banning masks, she is ending sick leave for COVID. Shame. https://hellgatenyc.com/governor-hochul-ends-covid-sick

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25% of the nation's top #cancer centers are in California, New York, and North Carolina. Why are politicians in these states contemplating banning vulnerable patients from #masking in public? @michael_hoerger

 

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Other:

Moderna’s mRNA RSV Vaccine's Protection Wanes

mRESVIA® (mRNA-1345) showed about 81% efficacy after 3.7 months, but around 50% (37.5%, 60.7%) efficacy in preventing illness after 18 months.

https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/2024/06/27/modernas-mrna-rsv-vaccines-protection-wanes

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Bird Flu: 

The U.S. is still bungling its response to the bird flu virus that has been spreading among dairy cows for three months, according to more than a dozen experts and current and former government officials who spoke to STAT. What’s going wrong? Testing infrastructure is insufficient. Our understanding of how the virus spreads within and between herds is incomplete. And the government can’t get farmers and dairy workers to cooperate with tracking or mitigation efforts. (Just to name a few things.)

https://www.statnews.com/2024/06/26/bird-flu-outbreak-avian-flu-containment-h5n1-eradication-in-cattle/?

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Human serology study launches in Michigan

to see if asymptomatic infections are occurring in the risk group.

The CDC spelled out three main research objectives, including preventing illness in people exposed to H5N1, with assessing antiviral effectiveness as one of the focus areas. Other objectives include understanding infection in people, including estimating the incubation period, and preparing for and mitigating the possibility of an H5N1 pandemic.

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USDA enrolls more farms in health and compensation programs

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/scientists-expand-h5n1-testing-dairy-products-launch-human-serology-study

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A single mutation (T199i) in dairy cow-associated #H5N1 viruses increases receptor binding breadth

- A/Texas/37/2024, an isolate from the US dairy cow outbreak https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-scientific-studies-including-seasonal-novel-flu/h5n1-research-studies-papers-academia/992500-biorxiv-a-single-mutation-in-dairy-cow-associated-h5n1-viruses-increases-receptor-binding-breadth…

 https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.06.22.600211v1.full.pdf+html

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H5N1 in mice

It appears that virus from mice have a genetic marker found in viruses from dairy cattle.

PB2 of the house mouse sequences contain the recent “cattle outbreak adaptation signature” M631L

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H5N1 and contaminated surfaces:

Examining the persistence of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) from cattle and human influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic viruses in unpasteurized milk revealed that both remain infectious on milking equipment materials for several hours. Those findings highlight the risk for H5N1 virus transmission to humans from contaminated surfaces during the milking process.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/8/24-0775_article?

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The H5N1 cattle virus remained infectious in unpasteurized milk on stainless steel and rubber inflation lining after 1 hour, and the H5N1 cattle virus had a similar decay rate to the human H5 virus.

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Pasteurization:

H5N1: Virus still detectable in milk after 20 seconds of pasteurization at 72 degrees Celsius "15-second pasteurization at 72 degrees Celsius is the most common process in the U.S." http://wfyi.org  https://t.co/Epz0kFsFL5

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FDA finds that 15% of 275 raw milk samples from four states w/bird flu contain infectious virus. Pasteurization killed the viruses. Study suggests that cows w/subclinical infections still shed virus in their milk.

https://fda.gov/media/179708/download?attachment

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Tamiflu showed a 16-FOLD REDUCTION in its ability to inhibit H5N1 virus collected from a TX dairy worker (vs seasonal flu.)

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 disinfecting surfaces & hand hygiene to prevent fomite transmission is very important as H5N1 is hardy & can survive on plastic surfaces 24 hrs & skin 4.5 hrs.

"The survival time of H5N1 on plastic surfaces was 26 hrs & on skin surfaces 4.5 hrs, >2.5 fold longer than other subtypes. The effectiveness of a relatively low ethanol concentration (32%–36%) against the H5N1 subtype was substantially reduced compared with other subtypes. while a 10% chlorine bleach solution (which is what we use in the clinical laboratory for disinfecting surfaces) is highly effective.

they found that ethyl or isopropyl alcohol above 40% deactivated all of them within 15 seconds; the hand sanitizer bottles I have are all at least 60%.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/28/3/21-1752_article#:

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Chicken litter

Sen Cory Booker introduced legislation to ban chicken litter in cattle feed. Its name? NO SHT Act.

https://www.allaboutfeed.net/market/market-trends/chicken-litter-in-livestock-feed-comes-under-scrutiny-in-us/

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Finland to start bird flu vaccinations for humans,

in world first "The vaccine will be offered to those aged 18 or over who are at increased risk of contracting avian influenza due to their work or other circumstances," Finnish Institute (THL) said in a statement.

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Dengue:

CDC notes an increased risk of dengue virus infections in the United States.

The warning comes against the backdrop of a record surge in the Americas region, where more than 9.7 million cases have already been reported this year—twice as many for all of 2023.

In March, Puerto Rico declared a public health emergency due to an early rise in activity, with nearly 1,500 cases reported so far. Also, the CDC has reported a higher-than-expected number of travel-related cases in US travelers this year,

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/dengue/cdc-issues-alert-dengue-us